Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4cc8…373e crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$358 (+1%) realized +$362 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%47W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$671per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$228
economics 16% +$44
world 14% +$13
other 12% +$25
finance 4% +$15
tech 3% +$4
politics 3% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 3 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 47 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 0% -8.5%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,038) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$1,116
Realized+$362
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses47 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage263d
Avg bet$671
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $665 $660 −$5 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $228 $229 +$1 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $227 $227 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 23 $105 +$2 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $2,217 +$10 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $207 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 07 $1,086 +$9 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 27 $271 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 26 $810 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 20 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 11 $1,078 +$2 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $1,077 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 26 $1,062 +$15 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 18 $1,061 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 07 $2,086 +$13 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 in February? Mar 03 $1,058 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of February? Feb 28 $51 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $272 in February? Feb 28 $1,004 +$2 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of February? Feb 26 $1,053 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 21 $1,038 +$15 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 7 Feb 08 $1,037 +$1 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $1,021 +$6 +1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jan 24 $2,006 +$21 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Dec 30 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 26 $1,662 +$125 +8%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 09 $93 +$5 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 19 $719 +$54 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 04 $718 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 01 $806 +$5 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $9 +$1 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $782 +$14 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 25 $777 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on October 21? Oct 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on October 21? Oct 21 $735 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,600 on October 21? Oct 20 $766 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 October 13-19? Oct 19 $220 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 October 13-19? Oct 19 $257 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 October 13-19? Oct 19 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on October 18? Oct 18 $753 +$12 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,800 on October 16? Oct 17 $752 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $260 on October 14? Oct 15 $751 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $270 and $280 on October 13? Oct 14 $750 +$1 +0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Oct 13 $12 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,900 on October 12? Oct 13 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $250 on October 11? Oct 12 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 10? Oct 11 $170 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,700 on October 8? Oct 10 $157 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 4? Oct 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 4? Oct 08 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 4? Oct 08 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $665 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $107 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $136 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $149 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 20h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 38h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $227 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $227 9d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $228 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $227 13d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $105 13d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 14d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 14d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 14d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $207 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $119 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $904 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $904 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $206 33d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 34d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 34d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 34d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 34d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 34d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 34d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,115.89 · official $1,115.89 (match) · 174 history records