Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4C 0x4cc9…d5be sports 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$401 (+1%) realized +$400 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate66%78W / 40L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$248
sports 20% +$100
politics 18% +$40
economics 10% −$41
crypto 7% +$73
world 4% −$18
culture 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 +3.7% -6.1% 77% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 43 -2.4% -11.7% 56% 28% -13.1%
all 118 +15.8% +4.7% 66% 47% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 47% -8.4%
10% -5.3% 41% -17.2%
15% -14.4% 31% -25.2%
20% -22.8% 22% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$57 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$1,417
Realized+$400
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses78 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions18
Markets (closed)118 / 136
History coverage264d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,242 $1,232 −$10 (-1%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 75¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 96¢ 86¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 69¢ 96¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+39%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 87¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $900 $0 -0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +3%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $250 +$4 +2%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $900 −$1 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? May 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 14 $6 +$4 +61%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $960 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $700 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Apr 23 $10 +$9 +90%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,502 −$2 -0%
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5 Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,391 −$1 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 15 $7 +$3 +48%
Hornets vs. Knicks Apr 15 $52 +$8 +16%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,386 −$1 -0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $1,399 −$1 -0%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 08 $6 +$4 +57%
Spurs vs. Warriors Apr 08 $528 +$70 +13%
Spread: Celtics (-5.5) Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $5 $0 +2%
Clippers vs. Pacers Apr 01 $117 +$33 +28%
Pelicans vs. Raptors Apr 01 $450 +$150 +33%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 27 $6 +$4 +59%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 27 $332 +$68 +20%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Mar 25 $284 +$44 +16%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 25 $518 +$10 +2%
Rockets vs. Bulls Mar 23 $539 −$539 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Mar 22 $390 −$390 -100%
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awar Mar 22 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Mar 22 $4 +$1 +41%
Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awar Mar 22 $6 $0 +2%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 22 $49 +$1 +3%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 22 $754 +$546 +72%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $97 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,276 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $900 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $39 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $31 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 3d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 11d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $19 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $900 37d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $899 37d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 37d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $900 42d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $899 42d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $900 42d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $959 42d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $960 42d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $949 42d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $950 42d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $799 42d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $800 42d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $699 42d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $700 44d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 44d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $250 51d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 51¢ $82 57d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 72¢ $7 60d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Hawks 52¢ $10 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,416.54 · official $1,416.54 (match) · 473 history records