Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4C 0x4ccb…46e0 sports 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$494 (-8%) realized −$494 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%64W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$74
14 days+$74
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$175
other 20% −$140
crypto 13% −$127
politics 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +41.6% +28.1% 80% 80% +35.0%
≤30d 5 +41.6% +28.1% 80% 80% +35.0%
≤90d 22 -1.2% -10.6% 41% 41% -12.9%
all 123 +3.1% -6.7% 52% 50% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 50% -16.7%
10% -15.6% 44% -24.6%
15% -23.8% 39% -31.9%
20% -31.2% 33% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$37 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$494
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses64 / 59
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 141
History coverage258d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -96%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. S Jun 27 $15 +$17 +118%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will Brazil win on 2026 Jun 25 $23 +$18 +79%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $56 +$33 +60%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $10 +$17 +172%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $14 −$14 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $17 +$17 +101%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $20 +$13 +62%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 07 $5 −$5 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $10 −$3 -34%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 06 $19 −$19 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $28 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $10 +$49 +474%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $20 −$18 -90%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $132 +$70 +53%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $40 −$37 -92%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $99 −$81 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 03 $54 −$53 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 03 $120 −$119 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 03 $108 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 03 $82 +$20 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 03 $102 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 03 $65 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 03 $72 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 03 $90 −$20 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 03 $70 +$14 +20%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jan 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat Jan 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Wizards Dec 29 $15 +$35 +233%
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Dec 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 28 $40 +$25 +61%
Mavericks vs. Kings Dec 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-5.5) Dec 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $34 −$34 -100%
Lakers vs. 76ers Dec 08 $77 +$47 +61%
Magic vs. Knicks Dec 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Pelicans vs. Nets Dec 07 $40 +$26 +64%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-06? Dec 07 $40 +$31 +79%
76ers vs. Bucks Dec 06 $37 +$33 +89%
Spurs vs. Cavaliers Dec 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Lakers vs. Celtics Dec 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Lakers vs. Raptors Dec 05 $40 +$47 +117%
Kings vs. Jazz Nov 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND German BUY 24¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $40 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total C BUY 18¢ $15 16h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 16h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND South Africa vs. Canada: BUY 25¢ $20 28h
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: Both Te BUY 11¢ $10 43h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Will Algeria win on 20 BUY 17¢ $15 43h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Cro BUY 21¢ $15 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Panama vs. England: O BUY 14¢ $27 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2. BUY 12¢ $20 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5 Total Corn BUY 25¢ $25 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. S BUY 45¢ $15 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will BUY 29¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY $10 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-2 BUY 16¢ $15 4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 AND BUY 15¢ $11 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will Brazil win on 2026 BUY 55¢ $23 5d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Switzerland v BUY 31¢ $15 5d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1 BUY 17¢ $9 5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $56 5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Tota BUY 41¢ $36 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY 42¢ $30 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 37¢ $18 6d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 41¢ $25 49d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 36¢ $10 50d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 39¢ $14 51d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 24¢ $12 51d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 49¢ $17 52d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 35¢ $15 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $14.65 · 233 history records