Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4ccd…017c other 88 markets active 3d ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-2%) realized −$42 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%48W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$67
14 days−$106
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$36
sports 44% −$86
crypto 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -44.0% -49.3% 31% 31% -46.8%
≤30d 74 -10.7% -19.2% 57% 53% -14.7%
≤90d 83 -9.3% -17.9% 58% 54% -13.2%
all 83 -9.3% -17.9% 58% 54% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 54% -13.2%
10% -25.8% 45% -21.5%
15% -33.0% 29% -29.1%
20% -39.5% 18% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses48 / 35
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)83 / 88
History coverage29d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$22 +108%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $5 +$7 +129%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$4 +21%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 +$7 +128%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $20 +$2 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$11 +112%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $30 +$17 +54%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$4 +44%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 +$23 +112%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $41 −$20 -50%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $20 +$3 +16%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $10 +$7 +73%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $20 +$15 +75%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $20 +$11 +52%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 29 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $10 +$13 +132%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $10 +$3 +34%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $20 +$6 +32%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 27 $20 +$5 +25%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 27 $10 +$4 +43%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$4 +35%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$8 +77%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 24 $30 +$5 +18%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $20 +$6 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $15 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 42¢ $20 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5d
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $42 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $24 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $10 7d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 66¢ $11 8d
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 8d
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 8d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 88¢ $38 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 10d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 10d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 11d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $22 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 72¢ $22 11d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $20 11d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 91¢ $47 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.06 · official $40.06 (match) · 177 history records