Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4C 0x4cd4…ce48 sports 389 markets active 1h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,623 (-9%) realized −$9,880 · open +$257
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%175W / 213L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$295est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$722now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$57
14 days−$1,636
30 days−$1,440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$6,892
other 7% −$3,213
culture 2% +$678
crypto 0% −$77
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +67.1% +51.2% 60% 60% -16.7%
≤30d 31 -1.6% -11.0% 45% 45% -15.9%
≤90d 67 -7.0% -15.9% 42% 42% -21.7%
all 388 -6.1% -15.1% 45% 45% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 45% -17.5%
10% -23.2% 45% -25.4%
15% -30.6% 42% -32.6%
20% -37.4% 38% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$256 vs −$257 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$722
Realized−$9,880
Unrealized+$257
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses175 / 213
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$295
Open positions1
Markets (closed)388 / 389
History coverage588d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 388 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 63¢ 98¢ $465 $722 +$257 (+55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$2 +103%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $539 −$531 -98%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals Jun 14 $119 +$421 +354%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $67 +$53 +79%
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 10 $423 −$416 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $449 −$442 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $269 +$181 +67%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,467 −$1,449 -99%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $1,062 −$1,044 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $736 +$837 +114%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $995 +$726 +73%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $985 −$967 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $1,209 −$1,192 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $380 −$371 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $1,596 +$1,076 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $376 −$371 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $195 +$296 +152%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $495 +$588 +119%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $896 −$884 -99%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 03 $1,029 +$1,851 +180%
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Cobolli Jun 03 $451 −$445 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $1,010 −$994 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $406 −$400 -99%
Valorant: Division One vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 02 $44 −$43 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $504 +$949 +188%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $412 −$406 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $1,683 +$708 +42%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $435 −$428 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1,485 +$646 +44%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $876 +$610 +70%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 23 $322 −$318 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 23 $190 +$133 +70%
Madrid Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 23 $100 +$90 +90%
Madrid Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Apr 23 $160 −$157 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Apr 23 $158 +$102 +65%
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Apr 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $124 −$123 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $106 +$18 +17%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Blockx Apr 08 $171 −$169 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Preli Apr 04 $62 −$61 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs 9INE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Pla Apr 01 $196 −$192 -98%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Clos Mar 31 $66 −$65 -99%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 26 $164 −$164 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs BIG (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Pl Mar 26 $63 +$102 +163%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifie Mar 26 $40 +$23 +56%
Counter-Strike: SportsBetExpert vs Chicken Coop Esports (BO3) - ESL Ch Mar 26 $216 −$216 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 26 $105 +$151 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 63¢ $470 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Under 16¢ $1 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 48¢ $2 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $539 2d
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $119 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $120 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $67 2d
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) BUY Humbert 45¢ $423 7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 44¢ $449 10d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $450 10d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 59¢ $269 10d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 60¢ $1,467 11d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY Yes 40¢ $77 11d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Monte 100¢ $1,574 11d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY Yes 41¢ $985 11d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 46¢ $736 11d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL 9z 100¢ $1,721 11d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 40¢ $985 11d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 57¢ $995 11d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $1,209 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 24¢ $380 12d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $82 12d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $1,514 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 57¢ $376 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Maja Chwalinska 100¢ $492 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 39¢ $195 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 45¢ $495 13d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $896 13d
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) SELL B8 100¢ $2,879 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $721.85 · official $721.85 (match) · 718 history records