Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:03:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4C 0x4cd5…e548 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$163 (+24%) realized +$164 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$102
14 days+$102
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$140
other 19% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -5.0% -14.1% 67% 67% +16.5%
≤30d 6 -5.0% -14.1% 67% 67% +16.5%
≤90d 6 -5.0% -14.1% 67% 67% +16.5%
all 9 +1.2% -8.4% 67% 67% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 67% +15.0%
10% -17.2% 67% +4.0%
15% -25.2% 33% -6.1%
20% -32.5% 0% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$10 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.12 per $1 lost it wins $6.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$164
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage248d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $81 +$39 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$25 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $40 +$20 +50%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 25 $125 +$32 +26%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $10 −$1 -11%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Nov 02 $100 +$26 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $81 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $20 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 68¢ $40 47h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $40 4d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan BUY Japan 80¢ $125 145d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 33¢ $9 222d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $10 222d
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) BUY T1 79¢ $100 248d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.26 · official $99.26 (match) · 20 history records