Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cd6…6084 crypto 1511 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$142 (-1%) realized −$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate86%1381W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day97.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$449
7 days−$510
14 days−$627
30 days−$511
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 697 -15.2% -23.3% 74% 34% -13.8%
≤30d 1614 -6.5% -15.4% 86% 16% -11.2%
≤90d 1614 -6.5% -15.4% 86% 16% -11.2%
all 1614 -6.5% -15.4% 86% 16% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 16% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 4% -19.7%
15% -30.9% 2% -27.4%
20% -37.7% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1381 / 233
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1614 / 1511
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day97.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1614 Trades
no open positions (233 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $15 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $17 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $18 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $18 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $17 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $18 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $13 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $18 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records