Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cd8…9f4b world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$11
other 25% −$1
politics 5% −$3
sports 1% +$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 -10.6% -19.1% 42% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 16 -8.3% -17.0% 38% 0% -11.5%
all 31 -5.5% -14.5% 42% 3% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 3% -10.9%
10% -22.7% 3% -19.4%
15% -30.2% 3% -27.2%
20% -37.0% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage488d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 90¢ 90¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $86 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $26 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $17 −$1 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $12 $0 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $26 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $30 −$4 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $32 −$2 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $30 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $39 −$8 -20%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $2 $0 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $36 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 29 $9 $0 -4%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in t Apr 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 27 $15 $0 -1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 25 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? Apr 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel advance to the Romanian Presidential Electio Apr 19 $1 $0 +0%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 23 $11 $0 +2%
Rutgers vs. Washington Mar 04 $7 +$4 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $28 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $25 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $26 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $26 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $13 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $13 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $12 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $24 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $24 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $29 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $25 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $9 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $16 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $5 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $21 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $26 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 67¢ $26 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $26 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $3 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 69¢ $26 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 69¢ $3 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $32 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.21 · official $28.05 (match) · 93 history records