Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cd8…c59c crypto 43 markets active 22h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,006 (-19%) realized −$1,006 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%20W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,509
7 days−$1,577
14 days−$1,182
30 days−$1,182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$405
crypto 37% −$765
other 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -46.2% -51.3% 28% 24% -41.2%
≤30d 43 -15.0% -23.1% 47% 44% -30.0%
≤90d 43 -15.0% -23.1% 47% 44% -30.0%
all 43 -15.0% -23.1% 47% 44% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 44% -30.0%
10% -30.4% 44% -36.7%
15% -37.1% 33% -42.8%
20% -43.3% 23% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$107 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,006
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses20 / 23
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage59d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $824 −$805 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $721 −$703 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $314 +$90 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $200 −$93 -46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$4 -13%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $51 +$31 +60%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $51 +$15 +30%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Lee Jaesung: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $620 +$232 +37%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: TYLOO vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Ranking Matc Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 12 $184 −$184 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 12 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $850 +$478 +56%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $12 +$19 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $163 +$135 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $77 −$2 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$4 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$12 +23%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $102 +$94 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $23 +$10 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$9 +34%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $102 +$41 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$6 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5AM ET Jun 08 $52 +$57 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $52 +$25 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 22¢ $788 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 25¢ $36 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 24¢ $14 45h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 24¢ $15 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $6 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $5 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $10 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $21 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $15 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $39 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $4 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $66 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $29 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $7 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $44 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $14 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records