Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cd9…1d58 other 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,473 (-1%) realized −$1,480 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%27W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,011per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$73
30 days−$1,921
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$50
politics 38% −$64
sports 13% −$1,498
economics 3% −$5
world 2% +$56
culture 1% +$26
tech 1% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 26 -0.9% -10.4% 15% 8% -14.6%
≤90d 66 +0.4% -9.2% 9% 5% -10.6%
all 140 -3.1% -12.3% 19% 12% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 12% -10.5%
10% -20.7% 11% -19.1%
15% -28.4% 9% -26.9%
20% -35.4% 9% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,532) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$25 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$1,428
Realized−$1,480
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses27 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions3
Markets (closed)140 / 143
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,011
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $931 $931 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $441 $444 +$2 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 56¢ 62¢ $49 $54 +$5 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,532 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 17 $2,669 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,616 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,205 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,630 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,662 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,605 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $1,215 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,741 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,666 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,032 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,145 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,173 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,606 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,155 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $3,572 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,601 −$3 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,131 −$2 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 04 $53 +$56 +105%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $67 $0 +0%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $1,880 −$1,880 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $44 +$32 +73%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $110 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,631 −$3 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $1,641 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $2,144 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,323 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,342 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $4,295 −$4 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $1,365 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,340 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,645 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,435 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,955 −$3 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,938 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $3,898 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $1,673 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 08 $2,174 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $4,383 −$4 -0%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 06 $1,287 +$672 +52%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $1,102 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,144 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 28 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $2,001 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $1,855 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $931 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,530 20h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,532 21h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,214 23h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,216 25h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,206 2d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,208 2d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,613 2d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,616 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,203 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,205 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,627 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,630 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,034 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,035 5d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $442 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,365 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,367 7d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,214 8d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,215 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,076 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,077 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,664 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,666 9d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,030 9d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,032 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,143 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,145 10d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,171 10d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,173 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,428.09 · official $1,428.09 (match) · 450 history records