Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cd9…86b4 politics 217 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%29W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$9
14 days−$15
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$9
other 26% −$11
sports 17% −$4
crypto 7% −$4
economics 7% −$2
culture 6% −$3
tech 4% −$2
world 3% −$2
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 74 -1.0% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 117 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.0%
all 216 -0.5% -9.9% 13% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses29 / 187
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)216 / 217
History coverage151d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $15 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $17 $0 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $136 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $41 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $73 −$1 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $130 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $106 −$2 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $16 $0 -2%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $16 $0 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $18 $0 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $11 $0 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $10 $0 -4%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $21 $0 -2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 05 $16 −$1 -9%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $46 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $234 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $14 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $15 $0 -1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 02 $22 $0 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $47 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $64 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 31 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $38 $0 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $41 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $12 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $9 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 6h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $11 6h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $11 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $15 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 22h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $12 23h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $12 29h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $16 29h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $17 35h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $19 36h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $19 41h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $10 41h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $10 45h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $7 46h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $7 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $13 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $19 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $19 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $19 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $8 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $8 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $13 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $13 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $7 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $7 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.76 · official $11.76 (match) · 888 history records