Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:49:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4C 0x4cda…de81 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$764 (-15%) realized −$759 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$1,405
14 days−$857
30 days−$857
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$358
sports 32% −$453
world 1% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -21.8% -29.2% 35% 30% -56.2%
≤30d 30 -13.8% -22.0% 47% 37% -25.3%
≤90d 30 -13.8% -22.0% 47% 37% -25.3%
all 30 -13.8% -22.0% 47% 37% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 37% -25.3%
10% -29.5% 37% -32.4%
15% -36.3% 30% -39.0%
20% -42.5% 23% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$121 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$759
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage9d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $21 +$97 +468%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $103 +$99 +97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$76 +74%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $205 −$55 -27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $103 +$106 +103%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$70 +68%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +45%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $103 −$95 -92%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$52 +51%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $247 −$247 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $466 −$466 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $508 −$508 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $274 −$271 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $506 +$38 +8%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$13 -62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $202 +$13 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $306 +$163 +53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $604 +$220 +36%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $406 +$92 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $152 +$35 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 7h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 7h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $31 8h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 29h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $202 30h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 49¢ $103 32h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $102 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $149 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $205 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $103 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $102 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $172 5d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 40¢ $15 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3¢ $8 5d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $103 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $102 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $102 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $247 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 1¢ $3 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $274 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $466 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 90¢ $101 7d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.08 · official $95.08 (match) · 68 history records