Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4C 0x4cdb…172c crypto 658 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$340 (+1%) realized +$211 · open +$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate84%477W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day39.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$24
14 days−$108
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$124
sports 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +1.0% -8.6% 93% 6% -9.8%
≤30d 432 +0.1% -9.4% 82% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 571 +0.9% -8.7% 84% 9% -9.4%
all 571 +0.9% -8.7% 84% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 9% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$13 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$5,718
Realized+$211
Unrealized+$129
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses477 / 94
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions87
Markets (closed)571 / 658
History coverage49d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day39.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 87 History 571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $237 $241 +$4 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $221 $224 +$3 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 97¢ 98¢ $221 $224 +$3 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $164 $167 +$4 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $153 $166 +$13 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $150 $161 +$11 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 90¢ 96¢ $136 $146 +$10 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 93¢ 98¢ $136 $143 +$7 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 88¢ 84¢ $132 $127 −$5 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $114 $117 +$3 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $105 $117 +$12 (+12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $115 $116 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $111 $114 +$4 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? No 93¢ 97¢ $108 $113 +$5 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $105 $108 +$3 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Yes 87¢ 97¢ $96 $108 +$11 (+12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $102 $106 +$4 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $101 $106 +$4 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $99 $103 +$4 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $97 $103 +$5 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $103 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 92¢ 92¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 23? No 97¢ 97¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $95 $99 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $38 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $52,000 and $54,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $218 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $152 +$18 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $182 +$7 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $119 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $234 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $117 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $172 −$4 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $67 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $152 −$85 -56%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 16 $24 −$4 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $83 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $217 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $175 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $89 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $237 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $180 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $77 +$6 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $213 −$69 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $238 −$91 -38%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $76 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $180 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $237 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $78 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $223 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $7 12m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $24 12m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 96¢ $36 12m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $17 45m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $59 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $5 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $5 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $65 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $5 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $4 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $5 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $45 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $39 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $89 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $38 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $4 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $46 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $5 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $55 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $46 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,718.39 · official $5,718.84 (match) · 2419 history records