trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 71¢ | 70¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 27¢ | 24¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-9%) |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 38¢ | 38¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? | Yes | 29¢ | 28¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-99%) |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-98%) |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $5 | +$6 | +116% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | +32% |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $1 | +$2 | +197% |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -13% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$1 | +108% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +35% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$1 | +60% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -62% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -96% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$2 | +172% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 15 | +3.0% | -6.9% | 47% | 47% | +9.5% |
| ≤30d | 15 | +3.0% | -6.9% | 47% | 47% | +9.5% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +3.0% | -6.9% | 47% | 47% | +9.5% |
| all | 15 | +3.0% | -6.9% | 47% | 47% | +9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.9% | 47% | +9.5% |
| 10% | -15.8% | 47% | -1.0% |
| 15% | -23.9% | 33% | -10.5% |
| 20% | -31.4% | 33% | -19.3% |