Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4cdc…0116 crypto 619 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$399 (+3%) realized +$365 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%311W / 306L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$118
14 days−$541
30 days−$499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$551
other 32% −$62
crypto 24% −$120
tech 2% +$22
economics 1% −$61
politics 0% +$11
culture 0% −$20
finance 0% +$3
sports 0% +$5
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +1.4% -8.3% 76% 41% -5.3%
≤30d 244 -78.0% -80.1% 12% 9% -17.1%
≤90d 250 -75.9% -78.2% 14% 10% -13.6%
all 617 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 44% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 44% -6.7%
10% -21.9% 38% -15.7%
15% -29.4% 35% -23.8%
20% -36.4% 32% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$1,258
Realized+$365
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses311 / 306
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)617 / 619
History coverage166d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 617 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $924 $957 +$34 (+4%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? No 96¢ 96¢ $300 $301 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $304 +$99 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 $0 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $339 +$17 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $152 −$67 -44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $75 +$12 +16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $388 +$15 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $354 +$34 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $211 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $173 +$39 +23%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $154 +$14 +9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $127 +$15 +12%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $120 +$16 +14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$5 +38%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 +$4 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$5 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $301 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $300 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $404 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 68¢ $101 46h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $101 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $204 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $204 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 78¢ $40 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 85¢ $20 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 92¢ $37 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 75¢ $10 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 85¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $441 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 48¢ $85 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $339 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $152 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $403 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $75 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $76 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $388 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $212 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 98¢ $211 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $211 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,257.86 · official $1,259.11 (match) · 1639 history records