Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4C 0x4cdd…28b0 crypto 290 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$75 (+1%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate95%275W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$65
14 days+$81
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +8.3% -2.0% 100% 0% -2.3%
≤30d 211 +2.3% -7.5% 95% 17% -7.8%
≤90d 290 +2.0% -7.7% 95% 15% -9.0%
all 290 +2.0% -7.7% 95% 15% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 15% -9.0%
10% -16.6% 2% -17.7%
15% -24.6% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$35 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses275 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)290 / 290
History coverage36d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 290 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $160 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $120 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $85 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $107 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $85 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $75 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $78 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $22 +$2 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $116 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $70 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $55 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $63 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $62 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $107 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $83 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $38 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $46 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $19 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $82 +$6 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $120 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $85 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $107 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $74 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $39 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $46 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $22 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $43 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $28 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $44 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $70 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $22 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $55 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $23 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 651 history records