Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

4C 0x4cdd…ebf3 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$10 (-13%) realized +$43 · open −$53

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip

Net edge-67%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-67.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-63.5%	-67.0%	0%	0%	-67.0%
≤30d	2	-63.5%	-67.0%	0%	0%	-67.0%
≤90d	2	-63.5%	-67.0%	0%	0%	-67.0%
all	2	-63.5%	-67.0%	0%	0%	-67.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-67.0%	0%	-67.0%
10%	-70.2%	0%	-70.2%
15%	-73.0%	0%	-73.0%
20%	-75.7%	0%	-75.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -64% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -64% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$6 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$43

Unrealized−$53

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage3d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$53	$0	−$53 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$10	−$3	-27%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	22¢	$29	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	10¢	$7	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	20¢	$26	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	52¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 5 history records