Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4ce2…a9d0
crypto · 1028 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,267 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,261 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43
Realized−$1,261
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses896 / 337
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1233 / 1028
History coverage28d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day86.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1233 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,136
7 days−$1,097
14 days−$915
30 days−$1,261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$37
other 0% −$7
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $72 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $84 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $68 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 862 -23.7% -31.0% 75% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 1233 -20.9% -28.4% 73% 5% -10.8%
≤90d 1233 -20.9% -28.4% 73% 5% -10.8%
all 1233 -20.9% -28.4% 73% 5% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover86.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 5% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 5% -19.4%
15% -41.5% 5% -27.2%
20% -47.2% 4% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.18 · official $43.18 (match) · 3500 history records