Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:40:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4ce3…31b5 weather 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$632 (-12%) realized −$589 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%69W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days−$126
14 days−$557
30 days−$624
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$641
sports 10% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -9.3% -17.9% 48% 48% -16.6%
≤30d 125 +4.5% -5.5% 45% 45% -22.2%
≤90d 130 +7.6% -2.7% 45% 45% -21.5%
all 158 +3.0% -6.8% 44% 43% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 43% -21.8%
10% -15.7% 41% -29.3%
15% -23.8% 38% -36.1%
20% -31.3% 35% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$30 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$589
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses69 / 89
Open positions5
Markets (closed)158 / 163
History coverage138d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? No 28¢ 40¢ $37 $53 +$16 (+45%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? No 51¢ 41¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 23? No 25¢ 7¢ $73 $20 −$52 (-72%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? No 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 22? No 48¢ 58¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $36 +$37 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 22 $18 +$18 +99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 22 $39 +$34 +87%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $87 +$107 +123%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Jun 20 $34 −$34 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $51 +$47 +92%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $57 +$44 +78%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? Jun 18 $55 −$54 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? Jun 18 $33 −$33 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $101 +$53 +52%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $88 −$86 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +95%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $103 +$109 +106%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $102 +$69 +67%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $50 +$47 +94%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? Jun 16 $32 −$31 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +49%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$54 +105%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $87 +$70 +80%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $86 −$84 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $23 +$30 +128%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 15 $75 +$57 +76%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +406%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 14? Jun 15 $102 +$63 +61%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$5 +66%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +61%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $51 +$31 +62%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $75 −$73 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $74 +$77 +104%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? Jun 12 $85 −$83 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $95 +$56 +59%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$33 +110%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 31¢ $2 44m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 31¢ $18 44m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 25¢ $0 55m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 25¢ $18 55m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY No 48¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY No 47¢ $7 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 31¢ $15 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 30¢ $37 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 51¢ $48 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 50¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 18¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 18¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 18¢ $9 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 18¢ $11 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 50¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 50¢ $20 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 22? BUY No 49¢ $5 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 22? BUY No 48¢ $3 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 22? BUY No 48¢ $28 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 12¢ $15 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 11¢ $18 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 13¢ $5 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 14¢ $8 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 14¢ $2 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 15¢ $20 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 16¢ $14 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 15¢ $1 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 17¢ $19 22h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY No 49¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY No 49¢ $18 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.71 · official $172.74 · 549 history records