Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4ce3…4291 weather 1063 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17,666 (+71%) realized +$17,947 · open −$281
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate18%213W / 977L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day62.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 53d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$8,036
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 332 -82.1% -83.8% 4% 4% -63.0%
≤30d 578 -31.2% -37.7% 16% 14% -0.2%
≤90d 1190 -20.8% -28.4% 18% 16% +2.6%
all 1190 -20.8% -28.4% 18% 16% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 16% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here -35.2% 15% -7.2%
15% -41.5% 14% -16.2%
20% -47.2% 13% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$15 · ×5.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized+$17,947
Unrealized−$281
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses213 / 977
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1190 / 1063
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day62.7
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 1190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26? Yes 22¢ 96¢ $48 $204 +$156 (+329%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 27? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $73 $89 +$16 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 27? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $60 $66 +$6 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $51 $18 −$33 (-65%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? Yes 4¢ 13¢ $4 $14 +$10 (+237%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 26? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $27 $2 −$25 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 26? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $54 $1 −$53 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 26? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $24 $1 −$24 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 26? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $129 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $131 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 26? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 26? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 26? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 26? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 26? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 482 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 4? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 5? Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 2? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on March Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 14? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 28? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 26? Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 24? Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on March 28? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on April 28? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 19? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 19? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 12? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on February 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 30? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 14? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 4? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on April 9? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 5? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 27? Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on March 2? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 10? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on February 22? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 21? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 3? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on March 23? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 20? Jun 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 11? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 26? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 7? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 14? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 12? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 1? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 27? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 29? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 11? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 22? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 12? Jun 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 16? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on February 18? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 21? Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or higher on May 2? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 2? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or higher on April 12? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 4? Jun 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 5? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 9? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 19? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? SELL Yes 96¢ $117 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 38m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26? SELL Yes 92¢ $44 38m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26? SELL Yes 94¢ $16 38m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26? SELL Yes 95¢ $20 39m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26? SELL Yes 94¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? SELL Yes 93¢ $76 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? SELL Yes 94¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? SELL Yes 94¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? SELL Yes 94¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 27? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 49¢ $131 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 56¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 54¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 54¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? SELL Yes 76¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? SELL Yes 77¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? SELL Yes 77¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? SELL Yes 77¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? SELL Yes 77¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $397.57 · official $396.62 (match) · 3500 history records