Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4C 0x4cea…4c34 crypto 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$128 (+1%) realized +$143 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate78%131W / 37L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$17
14 days+$36
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$58
politics 8% +$5
sports 8% +$44
weather 7% +$4
world 6% +$6
other 6% −$12
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +54.4% +39.7% 67% 28% -4.0%
≤30d 42 +35.4% +22.5% 81% 21% -7.7%
≤90d 89 +14.1% +3.2% 82% 15% -8.3%
all 168 +3.3% -6.5% 78% 14% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 14% -8.7%
10% -15.5% 10% -17.4%
15% -23.7% 8% -25.4%
20% -31.1% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$143
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses131 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)168 / 171
History coverage538d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 100¢ 92¢ $200 $184 −$16 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $66 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +650%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO Jun 04 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$6 +582%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $200 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $236 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $209 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $10 $0 +3%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 01 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 27 $1 $0 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 26 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 22? May 23 $7 +$3 +50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21? May 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 20 $197 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 19 $90 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 18 $6 −$4 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on May 14? May 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 17 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14? May 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 14? May 14 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 90¢ $9 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $6 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $6 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $60 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $32 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $13 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $10 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $105 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.58 · official $289.59 (match) · 429 history records