Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:44:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4ceb…e818 crypto 16 markets active 5d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$300 (-48%) realized −$300 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$159
world 16% −$100
other 5% −$30
sports 4% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-65.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 16 -61.5% -65.2% 12% 12% -54.9%
≤90d 16 -61.5% -65.2% 12% 12% -54.9%
all 16 -61.5% -65.2% 12% 12% -54.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.2% 12% -54.9%
10% -68.5% 12% -59.2%
15% -71.5% 12% -63.1%
20% -74.3% 12% -66.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$36 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$120 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$72 +137%
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -89%
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? Jun 17 $21 −$13 -61%
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $106 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up $27 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up $5 9d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 23¢ $100 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $172 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $11 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 11d
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? SELL Yes $1 11d
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? SELL Yes $8 11d
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 11d
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 11d
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? BUY Yes $21 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records