Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:35:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4C 0x4cef…8979 politics 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 88% −$4
world 10% −$1
other 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -5.1% -14.1% 8% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 12 -5.1% -14.1% 8% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -5.1% -14.1% 8% 0% -9.8%
all 14 -4.2% -13.4% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage246d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $189 $189 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $209 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $338 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -21%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -21%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $229 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Interstellar object confirmed aliens? Dec 17 $19 $0 +2%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 21 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 7m
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 8h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 8h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 12h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 14h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 15h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 19h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 20h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 21h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 21h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 24h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 30h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 30h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 32h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 38h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 39h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 41h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 43h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 43h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 2d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.57 · official $188.57 (match) · 41 history records