Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:16:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4C 0x4cf0…5195 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$39 (+6%) realized +$44 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%14W / 6L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$16
14 days+$14
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$22
sports 44% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.5% -6.3% 67% 53% -5.1%
≤30d 20 +12.3% +1.6% 70% 60% -1.7%
≤90d 20 +12.3% +1.6% 70% 60% -1.7%
all 20 +12.3% +1.6% 70% 60% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 60% -1.7%
10% -8.1% 45% -11.1%
15% -17.0% 35% -19.7%
20% -25.1% 20% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)20 / 26
History coverage21d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $40 +$6 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$15 -76%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$9 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$27 -66%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$12 +59%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +21%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$17 -66%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $79 −$10 -13%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 11 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $40 +$12 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 06 $30 +$6 +21%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$13 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 87¢ $30 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 86¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 62¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 4d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 5d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 47¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 10d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 10d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.32 · official $80.32 · 53 history records