Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cf1…63bc other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%6W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$2
sports 21% −$19
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -18.8% -26.5% 24% 24% -13.5%
≤30d 25 -18.8% -26.5% 24% 24% -13.5%
≤90d 25 -18.8% -26.5% 24% 24% -13.5%
all 25 -18.8% -26.5% 24% 24% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 24% -13.5%
10% -33.5% 20% -21.8%
15% -40.0% 20% -29.3%
20% -45.8% 20% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses6 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage3d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $97 −$7 -7%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $12 −$1 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 −$1 -1%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $13 +$22 +166%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $32 +$17 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -10%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $86 +$10 +12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 $0 -6%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $7 +$16 +228%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 $0 -13%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 −$2 -50%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$4 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $33 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 25¢ $33 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $36 7h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $12 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 23h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $12 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $2 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $36 23h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 24¢ $20 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 82¢ $50 26h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $31 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 26h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 27h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 28h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 58¢ $7 33h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 34h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 70¢ $30 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $16 34h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.55 · official $32.55 (match) · 63 history records