Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4C 0x4cf2…df98 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$64 (+25%) realized +$39 · open +$25
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$36
other 27% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +39.1% +25.9% 100% 67% +2.8%
≤30d 3 +39.1% +25.9% 100% 67% +2.8%
≤90d 3 +39.1% +25.9% 100% 67% +2.8%
all 3 +39.1% +25.9% 100% 67% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.9% 67% +2.8%
10% ← realistic here +13.8% 67% -7.0%
15% +2.8% 33% -16.0%
20% -7.3% 33% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)3 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner MOUZ 26¢ 54¢ $42 $85 +$44 (+104%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs MOUZ 58¢ 40¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Iva Jovic 73¢ 50¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $59 +$3 +5%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $10 +$3 +27%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $5 +$4 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Inner Circle 53¢ $36 0m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Inner Circle 39¢ $27 34m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Virtus.pro 58¢ $27 34m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 65¢ $22 46m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 75¢ $13 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider SELL Clara Tauson 65¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 26¢ $43 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY MOUZ 47¢ $20 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY MOUZ 67¢ $20 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL Yellow Submarine 33¢ $12 3h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY Yellow Submarine 28¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 78¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 58¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY MOUZ 70¢ $10 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 73¢ $10 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 34¢ $5 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 3h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 4h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.12 · official $197.13 (match) · 23 history records