Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4cf4…1017 crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+1%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate74%42W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$6
sports 41% −$158
other 5% +$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 19 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 35 +3.7% -6.2% 91% 9% -8.1%
all 57 +0.5% -9.0% 74% 23% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 23% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 23% -17.6%
15% -25.7% 23% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 21% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$72 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses42 / 15
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage155d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? Jun 23 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? Jun 22 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 12 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 11 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 10 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? Jun 09 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 08 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 05 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 03 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 02 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 29? Jun 01 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? May 29 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? May 28 $86 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 18? May 19 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 15? May 18 $86 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? May 15 $86 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 13? May 14 $85 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 11? May 13 $85 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 8? May 11 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 6? May 08 $84 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5? May 06 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 4? May 05 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 1? May 04 $84 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 27 $68 −$3 -4%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $79 +$65 +83%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 22 $59 +$82 +140%
Ducks vs. Predators Apr 16 $88 −$88 -100%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Apr 15 $70 +$73 +104%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Mar 30 $90 −$90 -100%
Canadiens vs. Red Wings Mar 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Kings vs. Islanders Mar 16 $76 +$93 +122%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Mar 11 $77 −$77 -100%
Knicks vs. Clippers Mar 09 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Fulham FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Mar 04 $46 −$46 -100%
Bruins vs. Flyers Feb 28 $88 −$88 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Feb 27 $90 +$63 +70%
Magic vs. Lakers Feb 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-23? Feb 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Pacers vs. Wizards Feb 20 $74 +$98 +133%
Michigan Wolverines vs. Purdue Boilermakers Feb 18 $96 +$61 +64%
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Niagara Purple Eagles Feb 16 $87 +$92 +105%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz Feb 13 $130 +$53 +41%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 12 $92 +$96 +104%
Knicks vs. Celtics Feb 08 $124 −$124 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $90 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $90 26h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $89 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $89 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $89 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $88 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $88 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $88 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $87 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $87 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $87 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $87 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $87 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $87 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $86 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $84 37d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $86 40d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $86 40d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $85 41d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $85 44d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $84 47d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $84 48d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $84 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $84 51d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $84 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.91 · official $89.91 (match) · 102 history records