Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:03:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4cf5…3ea3 sports 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$235 (+9%) realized +$236 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%48W / 61L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19
14 days+$13
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$98
other 13% +$111
world 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +15.3% +4.3% 67% 67% +7.8%
≤30d 29 +0.6% -9.0% 48% 34% +4.2%
≤90d 102 +5.5% -4.6% 42% 35% -1.3%
all 109 +5.0% -5.0% 44% 35% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 35% -2.1%
10% -14.1% 28% -11.5%
15% -22.4% 21% -20.1%
20% -30.0% 16% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$236
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses48 / 61
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage116d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India India 95¢ 94¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $27 +$8 +30%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $7 $0 -1%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 19 $65 +$11 +16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $68 +$5 +8%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $20 −$5 -23%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $22 +$8 +33%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $20 −$2 -8%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $54 −$11 -20%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $11 −$5 -45%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $22 −$4 -20%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $24 +$13 +56%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia Jun 07 $4 −$1 -22%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 06 $19 +$36 +186%
Will England win? Jun 05 $79 −$8 -10%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 05 $7 +$7 +100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Bahrain vs Singapore Jun 05 $12 +$6 +45%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 04 $21 −$2 -11%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 04 $41 +$1 +3%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies - Who wins the Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands - Who wins the Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $10 −$4 -36%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $25 +$1 +4%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $63 +$51 +80%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $5 −$1 -20%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $87 +$7 +9%
Will New Zealand win? May 29 $51 +$19 +37%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $74 −$14 -19%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $130 +$30 +23%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $37 −$9 -25%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $52 −$27 -51%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $46 +$16 +36%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings - Who wins May 23 $3 +$17 +567%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zea May 23 $20 +$8 +38%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $78 −$5 -6%
Will Pakistan win? May 20 $5 −$4 -75%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $25 +$3 +11%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Scotland vs USA May 19 $15 −$3 -20%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Test Series Bangladesh vs. Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan - Who wins May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bangladesh win? May 19 $47 +$84 +181%
Will the match end in a draw? May 19 $21 −$10 -47%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $51 −$9 -17%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 18 $15 +$8 +54%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $24 −$4 -18%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Cameron Norrie May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 14 $8 +$2 +18%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 14 $31 +$19 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 95¢ $54 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 42¢ $25 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 33¢ $20 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 54¢ $11 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 34¢ $7 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 35¢ $7 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 34¢ $7 5d
Will New Zealand win? SELL Yes 81¢ $3 6d
Will New Zealand win? SELL Yes 81¢ $38 6d
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 7d
Will New Zealand win? SELL Yes 35¢ $33 7d
Will New Zealand win? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 7d
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 7d
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 7d
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 7d
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 10d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 94¢ $3 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 94¢ $20 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 94¢ $16 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 94¢ $27 11d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 40¢ $16 11d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 46¢ $9 11d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 55¢ $11 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY Australia 75¢ $22 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland SELL Scotland 46¢ $18 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 45¢ $9 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 52¢ $11 12d
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates SELL Thailand 53¢ $20 12d
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates SELL Thailand 46¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.15 · official $53.15 (match) · 511 history records