Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4cf7…e126
crypto · 108 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$809 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$573 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$573
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses83 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage4d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 107 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days+$573
14 days+$573
30 days+$573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-76%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$29 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$156 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $53 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $53 +$36 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$45 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$98 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $127 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$19 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $126 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $127 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$37 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $207 −$96 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $205 −$65 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$42 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$14 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$579
politics 1% −$7
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $34 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $63 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $256 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $100 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $56 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +11.4% +0.8% 78% 62% -3.2%
≤30d 107 +11.4% +0.8% 78% 62% -3.2%
≤90d 107 +11.4% +0.8% 78% 62% -3.2%
all 107 +11.4% +0.8% 78% 62% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.8% 62% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here -8.9% 39% -12.5%
15% -17.7% 26% -20.9%
20% -25.7% 16% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.13 · official $2.13 (match) · 297 history records