Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:37:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4C 0x4cf7…c86c crypto 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,071 (+10%) realized +$1,004 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%64W / 62L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,872now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$868
7 days+$939
14 days+$915
30 days+$914
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$978
other 13% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.3% +5.3% 67% 33% +2.5%
≤30d 18 -34.4% -40.6% 28% 17% +1.8%
≤90d 105 -3.7% -12.9% 48% 38% +1.1%
all 126 -0.9% -10.4% 51% 41% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 41% +1.1%
10% -18.9% 35% -8.5%
15% -26.8% 21% -17.4%
20% -33.9% 7% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$2 · ×8.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.7 per $1 lost it wins $8.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$2,872
Realized+$1,004
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses64 / 62
Open positions6
Markets (closed)126 / 132
History coverage92d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $1,000 53¢ 55¢ $2,386 $2,453 +$66 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $151 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $83 $82 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $73 $72 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $1,162 +$435 +37%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $3,717 +$391 +10%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $340 −$5 -1%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $510 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 +$47 +46%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $1,215 +$70 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$5 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +34%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$4 -45%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$3 -53%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 12 $225 −$14 -6%
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $9 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 28 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 11 $7 −$2 -31%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 11 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10PM ET Apr 11 $6 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - April 10, 5AM ET Apr 11 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Apr 11 $6 +$4 +72%
XRP Up or Down - April 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 10 $5 −$1 -24%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 10 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 9PM ET Apr 10 $11 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 10 $7 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 8PM ET Apr 10 $12 −$4 -29%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 09 $6 −$3 -56%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 09 $6 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 09 $4 +$5 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8AM ET Apr 09 $11 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 09 $7 +$3 +38%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 9PM ET Apr 09 $11 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 09 $6 −$3 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 09 $7 +$3 +35%
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 9AM ET Apr 08 $12 +$3 +21%
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 08 $8 +$2 +25%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 6AM ET Apr 08 $8 −$2 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 4AM ET Apr 08 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 08 $8 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$3 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 07 $7 −$2 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 07 $8 −$2 -33%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 5AM ET Apr 07 $11 +$4 +31%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 07 $8 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 5PM ET Apr 07 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 07 $7 −$4 -49%
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 07 $8 −$3 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $74 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $135 4h
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $949 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $1,376 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $633 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 6h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $322 10h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $39 10h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $14 12h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 14h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 14h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 14h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $14 14h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 14h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 16h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $200 16h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $62 17h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 18h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 18h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $17 19h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 19h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $50 20h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 20h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $142 21h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 21h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 22h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,871.94 · official $2,871.94 (match) · 549 history records