Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cfb…14d8 sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+3%) realized +$38 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -22.7% -30.1% 40% 20% -34.5%
≤30d 5 -22.7% -30.1% 40% 20% -34.5%
≤90d 5 -22.7% -30.1% 40% 20% -34.5%
all 5 -22.7% -30.1% 40% 20% -34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 20% -34.5%
10% -36.8% 20% -40.7%
15% -42.9% 20% -46.5%
20% -48.5% 20% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 49¢ 100¢ $30 $62 +$31 (+103%)
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics PortlandFire 60¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 28 $22 −$2 -9%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $32 −$31 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $63 +$4 +6%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $0 $0 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) SELL San Diego Padres 37¢ $20 6m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 39¢ $22 6m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 21¢ $4 48m
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY PortlandFire 60¢ $32 1h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $31 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ $32 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $67 24h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $63 24h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $0 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.08 · official $61.64 (match) · 9 history records