Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4cfd…7e69 crypto 43 markets active 2d ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$805 (-59%) realized −$309 · open −$496
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$214
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$502
crypto 47% −$215
world 2% +$7
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -15.6% -23.7% 44% 44% -10.7%
≤30d 35 -31.8% -38.3% 31% 31% -40.7%
≤90d 35 -31.8% -38.3% 31% 31% -40.7%
all 35 -31.8% -38.3% 31% 31% -40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.3% 31% -40.7%
10% -44.2% 31% -46.3%
15% -49.6% 31% -51.5%
20% -54.5% 31% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$18 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$309
Unrealized−$496
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)35 / 43
History coverage13d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 100¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+49%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-23%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Panama 47¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-62%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 87¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+73%)
Will a player representing DR Congo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $366 $1 −$365 (-100%)
Will a player representing Tunisia be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $137 $0 −$137 (-100%)
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 51¢ 68¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? Jun 09 $0 $0 +0%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Jun 09 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 09 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$5 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$5 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$8 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$10 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $69 +$60 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $86 +$58 +68%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 05 $88 −$83 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? Jun 05 $150 −$142 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Panama 47¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 3¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $18 8d
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 47¢ $40 9d
Will a player representing Tunisia be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F SELL Yes 0¢ $1 9d
Will a player representing DR Congo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.92 · official $47.93 (match) · 237 history records