Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4cfd…5c91
crypto · 161 markets active 8h ago
0.0score
−$5,197 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,718 · open +$321
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$7,011
Realized−$5,718
Unrealized+$321
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses89 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)158 / 161
Avg bet$706
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 3 History 158 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,069
7 days−$3,069
14 days−$3,069
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $6,600 $6,975 +$375 (+6%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $60 $31 −$29 (-49%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $54,433 −$3,069 -6%
BNB Up or Down - May 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 27 $104 −$57 -55%
BNB Up or Down - May 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 27 $26 −$22 -84%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 27 $103 −$63 -61%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 27 $103 −$28 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 27 $103 −$57 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 27 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 27 $104 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 27 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 27 $16 +$4 +26%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Circuit May 27 $114 −$23 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 27 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 27 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 27 $5 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $590 +$107 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $17,825 +$2,544 +14%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Rebels Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Masters Champio May 23 $236 −$137 -58%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America May 22 $21 −$2 -11%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playof May 22 $89 +$15 +17%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame May 21 $12 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Ser May 21 $38 +$6 +16%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $207 +$73 +35%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 21 $9 +$3 +28%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $119 −$111 -93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $4,834 +$703 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $75 +$59 +78%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Apr 30 $208 −$72 -34%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $708 +$184 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $572 +$134 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 19 $4,367 −$3,758 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 19 $200 −$166 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 19 $500 +$62 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 19 $1,000 −$950 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 19 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 19 $100 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 19 $111 −$39 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 19 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 19 $200 +$68 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 19 $50 +$92 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 19 $100 +$45 +45%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 19 $100 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 19 $219 −$219 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 19 $76 −$28 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 19 $225 +$36 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 19 $733 −$494 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 19 $554 +$198 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 83% +$853
crypto 15% −$5,923
sports 1% −$179
tech 1% +$184
other 0% −$235
finance 0% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $38 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $215 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $344 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $62 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,484 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $64 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $38 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $147 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $110 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,819 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $902 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $500 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $225 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $569 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $28 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $9,200 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $2,685 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $243 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $4,091 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $65 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.6% -14.6% 0% 0% -14.6%
≤30d 27 -12.7% -21.1% 48% 44% -9.6%
≤90d 158 -9.4% -18.1% 56% 43% -14.8%
all 158 -9.4% -18.1% 56% 43% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 43% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 27% -23.0%
15% -33.1% 12% -30.4%
20% -39.6% 7% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,010.73 · official $7,010.73 (match) · 1113 history records