Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:22:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4D 0x4d01…1645 politics 279 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,419 (+9%) realized +$22,053 · open +$1,366
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate60%131W / 87L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$892per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$41,245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$933
7 days−$977
14 days+$1,431
30 days+$3,240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% +$25,679
world 26% +$444
other 15% +$2,794
economics 3% +$2,305
culture 1% −$1,121
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -83.8% -85.3% 14% 5% -19.8%
≤30d 74 -33.4% -39.7% 45% 19% +2.5%
≤90d 171 -7.8% -16.5% 58% 22% +2.8%
all 218 +5.4% -4.6% 60% 24% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 24% +3.1%
10% -13.7% 15% -6.7%
15% ← realistic here -22.1% 12% -15.8%
20% -29.7% 9% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$908) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$314 vs −$153 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$41,245
Realized+$22,053
Unrealized+$1,366
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses131 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions128
Markets (closed)218 / 279
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$892
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 128 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 99¢ $4,928 $5,123 +$195 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $3,142 $3,293 +$150 (+5%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 99¢ $1,500 $2,966 +$1,466 (+98%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $2,122 $2,232 +$110 (+5%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 83¢ 94¢ $1,933 $2,199 +$267 (+14%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 26¢ 78¢ $496 $1,506 +$1,010 (+204%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 67¢ 88¢ $1,070 $1,406 +$336 (+31%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 79¢ 98¢ $971 $1,209 +$238 (+25%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,010 $1,014 +$4 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 78¢ 90¢ $778 $905 +$127 (+16%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $794 $796 +$2 (+0%)
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $621 $652 +$31 (+5%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 82¢ 80¢ $620 $610 −$9 (-2%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $471 $595 +$124 (+26%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $520 $594 +$74 (+14%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $581 $578 −$4 (-1%)
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 97¢ $492 $533 +$41 (+8%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 61¢ $535 $494 −$40 (-8%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 35¢ 25¢ $683 $487 −$196 (-29%)
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $466 $480 +$15 (+3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 64¢ 99¢ $305 $471 +$165 (+54%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $459 $461 +$2 (+0%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 39¢ $586 $456 −$130 (-22%)
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 88¢ $372 $443 +$71 (+19%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $78 $422 +$344 (+440%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Darko Rajakovic win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Billy Donovan win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Willie Green win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Charles Lee win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jamahl Mosley win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Doc Rivers win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jason Kidd win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Inger Støjberg be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 20 Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Tyronn Lue win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chauncey Billups win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ime Udoka win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mark Daignault win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Erik Spoelstra win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Martin Lidegaard be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Quin Snyder win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will David Adelman win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jordi Fernandez win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pelle Dragsted be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 20 Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Chris Finch win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mike Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brian Keefe win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2 Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Steve Kerr win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Will Hardy win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jordan Ott win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will JJ Redick win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pia Olsen Dyhr be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 20 Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Kenny Atkinson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nick Nurse win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mark Daigneault win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rick Carlisle win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 16 $918 −$511 -56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $194 +$5 +2%
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $2,237 +$586 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $579 +$60 +10%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $1,101 +$9 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $847 −$705 -83%
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? Jun 12 $53 +$6 +12%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 08 $1,149 +$8 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 06 $299 +$33 +11%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win fewer than 50 seats in the 2026 Andalusi Jun 06 $202 +$20 +10%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $1,568 +$2,346 +150%
Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $343 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $806 +$193 +24%
Tucker Carlson arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $2 58m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $990 1h
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $299 2h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 3h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 3¢ $25 4h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 97¢ $546 4h
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $198 8h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY Yes 67¢ $101 10h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY Yes 67¢ $33 10h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $28 11h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 11h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $131 12h
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $177 12h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $0 13h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $309 13h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $2 15h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $48 18h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 19h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $124 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41,244.67 · official $41,244.66 (match) · 3500 history records