Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d02…704c crypto 804 markets active 3h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$414 (+2%) realized +$414 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%362W / 442L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$498
7 days−$12
14 days−$36
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 62% +$55
crypto 38% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -8.1% -16.9% 34% 34% -7.9%
≤30d 99 -9.4% -18.1% 34% 33% -9.6%
≤90d 377 -11.0% -19.5% 33% 31% -8.9%
all 804 -6.8% -15.7% 45% 43% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 43% -9.0%
10% -23.8% 39% -17.7%
15% -31.1% 19% -25.7%
20% -37.9% 15% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$414
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses362 / 442
Open positions0
Markets (closed)804 / 804
History coverage148d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 804 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $35 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $260 −$147 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $218 −$178 -82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $178 +$246 +138%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $373 −$363 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 −$24 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $115 +$153 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $70 −$68 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $118 +$229 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $53 −$52 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $41 −$28 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $118 −$82 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$16 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $133 −$128 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $102 −$45 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $62 −$54 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $129 +$66 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $283 +$115 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $120 +$131 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $106 −$103 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $67 −$18 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $131 −$33 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $84 +$77 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$15 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $78 −$77 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $194 −$190 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$62 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $68 +$65 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 −$37 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 −$4 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 −$34 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $74 +$79 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $66 −$37 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $92 −$90 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $245 −$175 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$176 +195%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $112 −$108 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$31 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $104 −$49 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $44 −$29 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $84 −$69 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $57 −$19 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 −$18 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $42 −$40 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $116 −$112 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $193 +$384 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $42 +$54 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $125 −$121 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 41¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $37 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $24 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $24 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $36 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $92 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $39 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $19 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $110 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $17 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3109 history records