Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4D 0x4d06…de2b politics 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d

RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$182 (+7%) realized +$186 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$887per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$797now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 238d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-0.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+9.5%	-0.9%	100%	0%	-0.9%
≤30d	1	+9.5%	-0.9%	100%	0%	-0.9%
≤90d	1	+9.5%	-0.9%	100%	0%	-0.9%
all	2	+9.6%	-0.8%	100%	0%	-0.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-0.8%	0%	-0.8%
10%	-10.3%	0%	-10.3%
15%	-19.0%	0%	-18.9%
20%	-26.9%	0%	-26.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$90 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage

Net worth$797

Realized+$186

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage238d

Avg bet$887

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	Yes	93¢	92¢	$801	$797	−$4 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	Jun 24	$733	+$70	+10%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Nov 05	$1,125	+$110	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al	BUY Yes	93¢	$803	1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	91¢	$733	10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	BUY Yes	91¢	$1,125	238d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $796.64 · official $796.64 (match) · 5 history records