Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4D 0x4d06…b2ea crypto 313 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28,782 (-13%) realized −$28,910 · open +$128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate62%181W / 110L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$682per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$403est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,739now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$480
7 days+$736
14 days−$527
30 days−$30,470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$19,193
sports 17% −$5,465
other 8% −$3,436
politics 2% −$3,331
weather 1% −$212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +3.6% -6.3% 54% 41% -2.2%
≤30d 142 -4.3% -13.4% 56% 37% -30.2%
≤90d 291 -3.5% -12.7% 62% 36% -23.1%
all 291 -3.5% -12.7% 62% 36% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 36% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 21% -30.5%
15% -28.7% 15% -37.2%
20% -35.7% 11% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$518) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$451 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$1,739
Realized−$28,910
Unrealized+$128
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses181 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$403
Open positions22
Markets (closed)291 / 313
History coverage54d
Avg bet$682
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 87¢ 84¢ $300 $291 −$9 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 82¢ 99¢ $200 $241 +$41 (+21%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 42¢ $10 $49 +$39 (+389%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ 32¢ $10 $27 +$17 (+171%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+46%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$16 +153%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $101 +$17 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $101 +$9 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$5 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +169%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$23 +224%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $103 +$117 +113%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $304 +$70 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $32 −$27 -86%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $21 +$36 +176%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $303 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $104 +$148 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $413 +$84 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $301 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $151 +$13 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 13 $152 −$152 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 13 $202 −$202 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$5 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $152 −$15 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $604 +$85 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $405 +$138 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$7 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$11 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$9 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 46m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $301 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $118 17h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $110 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 17h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 19h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $302 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $201 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 20h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 20h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 20h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $34 20h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $248 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 26h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $51 30h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 30h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 30h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,739.01 · official $1,739.02 (match) · 920 history records