Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:26:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d07…2f1e
other · 58 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage462d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 1 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $38 −$1 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 14 $2 $0 -22%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 14 $3 $0 -9%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? Jul 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Jul 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in Jul 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Jul 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $17 $0 +2%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $1 $0 -6%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Apr 03 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on March 25? Mar 25 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% +$1
crypto 16% +$2
world 15% −$1
politics 14% $0
culture 6% $0
weather 4% +$1
tech 4% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $37 40h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 42h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 42h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $42 2d
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 333d
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 333d
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? SELL No 98¢ $13 333d
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? BUY No 98¢ $13 333d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 SELL No 98¢ $12 334d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 334d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 BUY No 98¢ $12 334d
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 334d
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 334d
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 334d
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 334d
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? SELL No 98¢ $5 334d
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? SELL No 98¢ $6 334d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 334d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 334d
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 334d
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? BUY No 98¢ $11 334d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 334d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 334d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 334d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 334d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 334d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 3 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 3 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -10.9%
all 57 -3.1% -12.4% 39% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.62 · official $36.56 (match) · 162 history records