Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:42:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d07…2b94
weather · 911 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6,580 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,580 · open +$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,426
Realized−$6,580
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses541 / 364
Open positions179
Markets (closed)905 / 911
History coverage6d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day466.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 179 History 905 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,180
7 days−$6,580
14 days−$6,580
30 days−$6,580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? No 75¢ 100¢ $24 $32 +$8 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? No 93¢ 100¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? No 82¢ 94¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? No 86¢ 96¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 14? No 90¢ 99¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? No 87¢ 95¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? No 85¢ 92¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? No 86¢ 92¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? No 65¢ 69¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? No 68¢ 72¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? No 93¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? No 94¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? No 94¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? No 96¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? No 96¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? No 93¢ 96¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? No 95¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 2? Jun 12 $2 −$3 -122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$69 -823%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 1? Jun 12 $1 −$19 -1313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 1? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$96 -1123%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 65% −$257
crypto 35% −$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 3m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 17m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 64¢ $19 17m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 17m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 28m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 43¢ $21 30m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $12 32m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 33m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 47¢ $2 40m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 39¢ $8 40m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 41¢ $3 40m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 40¢ $7 40m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 75¢ $2 41m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 78¢ $15 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 53m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 66¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? SELL No 84¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? SELL No 83¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $23 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 905 -20.3% -27.9% 60% 3% -27.4%
≤30d 905 -20.3% -27.9% 60% 3% -27.4%
≤90d 905 -20.3% -27.9% 60% 3% -27.4%
all 905 -20.3% -27.9% 60% 3% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover466.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.9% 3% -27.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.8% 2% -34.3%
15% -41.1% 1% -40.7%
20% -46.9% 1% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,425.94 · official $3,425.24 (match) · 3500 history records