Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d09…0ac9 crypto 1155 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$104 (-4%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate84%975W / 179L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$113
other 0% +$4
weather 0% −$3
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -2.2% -11.5% 93% 6% -9.1%
≤30d 402 -1.0% -10.4% 94% 7% -11.6%
≤90d 1128 -4.6% -13.7% 85% 18% -13.2%
all 1154 -4.7% -13.8% 84% 18% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 18% -13.8%
10% -22.1% 10% -22.1%
15% -29.6% 7% -29.6%
20% -36.5% 5% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses975 / 179
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1154 / 1155
History coverage97d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1154 Trades
no open positions (174 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $8 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 56m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $8 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 32h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $8 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $2.00 · 2197 history records