trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 33% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 33% | 0% | -10.0% |
| all | 21 | +0.5% | -9.0% | 57% | 0% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 0% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -33.0% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $44 | $44 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 22 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 03 | $91 | +$1 | +1% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 02 | $85 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 01 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 31 | $33 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 31 | $41 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | May 30 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 30 | $52 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 29 | $17 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 28 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 23 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? | Mar 16 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian | Mar 15 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 12 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 11 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 11 | $15 | $0 | +0% |