Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:25:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d0f…a2c6 other 108 markets active 16h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$28
politics 22% −$5
economics 4% −$1
sports 3% +$40
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% +$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 +4.7% -5.3% 14% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 96 +2.1% -7.7% 14% 9% -9.6%
all 106 +5.2% -4.8% 13% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 9% -9.5%
10% -13.9% 9% -18.2%
15% -22.2% 8% -26.1%
20% -29.9% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage96d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $129 $129 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $8 +$8 +101%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $237 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $330 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $182 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $372 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $377 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 13 $186 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $175 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $328 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $577 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $189 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $185 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $392 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $183 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $371 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $178 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $389 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $177 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $367 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $184 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $342 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $181 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $386 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $520 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 15h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 18h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 37h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 41h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $56 7d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $31 7d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $32 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 8d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $8 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 9d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 9d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $129 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 15d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 16d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 17d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 20d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 21d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 22d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 22d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $36 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.15 · official $185.15 (match) · 307 history records