Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d11…4c4f world 172 markets active 6d ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate1%2W / 169L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$27
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% −$11
world 23% −$12
other 21% −$7
economics 14% −$6
sports 8% −$29
crypto 8% −$4
finance 3% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.3% -11.6% 0% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 11 -10.1% -18.6% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 57 +30.4% +18.0% 4% 2% -9.9%
all 171 +9.7% -0.7% 1% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 1% -9.7%
10% -10.2% 1% -18.3%
15% -18.9% 1% -26.2%
20% -26.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×8.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses2 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage107d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $41 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $202 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $81 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $80 −$24 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $81 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $51 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $112 −$2 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 01 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $10 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $110 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 10 $71 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $101 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $154 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $7 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 26 $5 $0 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 25 $202 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $5 $0 -8%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $7 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $201 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 19 $1 $0 -5%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $83 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $4 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $90 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $132 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $7 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $41 −$3 -6%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $4 $0 -3%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 13 $181 $0 -0%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 11 $4 $0 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $60 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 24 $210 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $40 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes $2 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes $0 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes $2 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $34 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 48¢ $39 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 36¢ $2 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL Yes $1 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes $4 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $91 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL Yes $0 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes $2 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes $4 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 96¢ $86 14d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $14 14d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 23¢ $10 14d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $46 14d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 23¢ $1 14d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $2 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $49 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 23¢ $5 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 15d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.62 · official $0.00 (match) · 1317 history records