Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4D 0x4d18…a287 world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate49%22W / 23L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$5
other 32% +$1
politics 14% +$2
economics 3% −$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 0% +$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 16 -1.0% -10.4% 38% 0% -8.9%
all 45 +1.3% -8.3% 49% 4% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 4% -8.6%
10% -17.1% 4% -17.4%
15% -25.1% 2% -25.4%
20% -32.4% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.95 per $1 lost it wins $2.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses22 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage451d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $56 $58 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $15 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $58 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $48 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $46 +$2 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $11 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $36 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $5 −$1 -20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $36 +$3 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $12 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $3 $0 -10%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Victor Ponta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 19 $30 $0 -2%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 155–169 times May 30–June 6? Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will another country be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Gra May 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files? May 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $29 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 07 $29 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 06 $30 $0 -1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 05 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 06 $23 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 06 $2 +$4 +222%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 06 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the Giants draft Mason Graham? Apr 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 04 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $28 $0 +1%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Apr 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $27 $0 -0%
More Epstein files released in March? Mar 30 $2 $0 +8%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested before April? Mar 30 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $56 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $13 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $43 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $54 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 38¢ $15 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 38¢ $15 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 38¢ $0 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $16 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $40 28h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 27d
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $2 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $3 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $47 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $46 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $11 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $11 29d
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $2 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $2 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $34 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $36 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $23 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $8 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.78 · official $57.78 (match) · 129 history records