Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:14:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

4D 0x4d18…1424 crypto 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$3,808 (+60%) realized +$3,808 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2,101per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$94 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage

Net worth$34

Realized+$3,808

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage42d

Avg bet$2,101

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	No	65¢	64¢	$34	$34	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Jun 02	$6,101	−$23	-0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	May 06	$166	−$165	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	BUY No	65¢	$35	1h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$24	14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL No	96¢	$9,962	21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY No	45¢	$2,093	33d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY No	68¢	$3,984	39d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	75¢	$166	41d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.14 · official $34.14 (match) · 6 history records