Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d1b…1419 other 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,290 (+3%) realized +$8,318 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate81%98W / 23L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,843per market
Trades / day42.4pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$18,054now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$208
7 days+$2,438
14 days+$4,033
30 days+$3,514
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$3,874
other 25% +$4,579
politics 21% +$1,793
tech 8% +$1,768
economics 3% −$191
sports 3% +$686
finance 2% −$246
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.7% -11.0% 91% 18% +1.7%
≤30d 48 -6.4% -15.3% 83% 15% -4.3%
≤90d 121 +26.5% +14.5% 81% 20% -3.6%
all 121 +26.5% +14.5% 81% 20% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.5% 20% -3.6%
10% +3.5% 13% -12.8%
15% ← realistic here -6.5% 7% -21.3%
20% -15.7% 6% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$1,845) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$253 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.11 per $1 lost it wins $3.11
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$18,054
Realized+$8,318
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses98 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions18
Markets (closed)121 / 139
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$1,843
Trades / day42.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $4,160 $4,384 +$224 (+5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $3,915 $3,981 +$66 (+2%)
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $2,059 $2,130 +$71 (+3%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $971 $1,083 +$113 (+12%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $914 $994 +$80 (+9%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $963 $990 +$27 (+3%)
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $933 $950 +$16 (+2%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 21¢ 22¢ $869 $916 +$47 (+5%)
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $737 $756 +$19 (+3%)
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $671 $669 −$2 (-0%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 90¢ 88¢ $450 $443 −$7 (-2%)
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $340 $344 +$4 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 56¢ $76 $222 +$146 (+192%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 91¢ 16¢ $683 $116 −$567 (-83%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 36¢ $327 $63 −$263 (-81%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? Yes $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 44¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Jun 20 $296 +$16 +6%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Worl Jun 19 $495 +$21 +4%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 19 $860 +$45 +5%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Jun 19 $471 +$29 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $858 +$73 +8%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI Jun 18 $406 +$23 +6%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $1,680 −$570 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $15,542 +$1,989 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $362 +$9 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,659 +$792 +30%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 12 $235 −$86 -37%
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in June? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $4,445 +$163 +4%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $2,844 +$731 +26%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,754 +$137 +5%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $806 +$44 +5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $4,858 +$237 +5%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 09 $10,256 +$273 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $198 +$2 +1%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $4,147 +$94 +2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $1,065 +$9 +1%
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar Jun 05 $70 +$8 +11%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 04 $90 +$4 +4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $134 +$4 +3%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $1,674 +$239 +14%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $101 −$101 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1,357 +$57 +4%
Claude 4.8 released by June 15? May 28 $558 +$17 +3%
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May? May 28 $113 −$7 -7%
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in May? May 28 $305 +$23 +7%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $588 +$12 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 27? May 26 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 26 $188 +$5 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $194 +$6 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $493 +$7 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $4,807 +$528 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $3,889 +$172 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $1,405 +$75 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $240 +$96 +40%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $1,858 −$1,433 -77%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $2,915 +$35 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $3,943 +$50 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $133 −$37 -28%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $198 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 21 $46 −$44 -97%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $196 +$4 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? May 20 $10 +$421 +4210%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $6,206 +$106 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? BUY No 98¢ $98 22m
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $172 38m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $5 54m
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $5 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $5 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $6 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $2 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $2 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $3 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $3 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $2 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $2 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $5 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $117 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $412 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $2,031 2h
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? BUY No 98¢ $42 3h
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? BUY No 98¢ $98 3h
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? BUY No 98¢ $98 3h
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? BUY No 98¢ $98 3h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF BUY Yes 94¢ $39 10h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF BUY Yes 94¢ $38 10h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $78 11h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $4 12h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World BUY Yes 95¢ $44 12h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World BUY Yes 95¢ $51 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,054.31 · official $18,047.87 (match) · 3500 history records