Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d1d…d8c0 sports 287 markets active 0h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,270 (-10%) realized −$3,272 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%144W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$309est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$181
7 days+$479
14 days+$479
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,545
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +1.5% -8.1% 56% 52% +4.1%
≤30d 44 -0.8% -10.3% 55% 52% -6.9%
≤90d 197 -3.5% -12.7% 54% 53% -12.4%
all 286 -10.2% -18.8% 50% 49% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 49% -19.3%
10% -26.6% 46% -27.0%
15% -33.6% 41% -34.1%
20% -40.2% 32% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$98 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$3,272
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses144 / 142
Est. fees paid−$309
Open positions1
Markets (closed)286 / 287
History coverage182d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Power Rangers 37¢ 38¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $304 +$147 +48%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $203 −$203 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $153 +$199 +130%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $197 +$286 +145%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $203 +$122 +60%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $7 −$1 -15%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $101 +$93 +92%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $237 +$12 +5%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $68 −$68 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 26 $57 −$57 -100%
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $275 −$168 -61%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $140 −$140 -100%
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) Jun 26 $122 +$135 +111%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $51 +$17 +34%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $99 +$74 +75%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $143 +$96 +67%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $49 +$52 +105%
Game Handicap: the bug (-1.5) vs GG Boom (+1.5) Jun 24 $85 +$76 +89%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $123 +$76 +62%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $100 +$43 +44%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $81 −$81 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $10 +$3 +34%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $13 +$8 +66%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $8 +$5 +58%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $3 +$5 +188%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $2 +$1 +67%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $56 +$27 +49%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $42 −$42 -100%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $61 +$69 +113%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $174 −$174 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $281 −$107 -38%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $152 +$79 +52%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $150 +$51 +34%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $47 +$13 +27%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $94 +$131 +139%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 37¢ $41 5m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 19¢ $94 35m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 40¢ $206 51m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 60¢ $155 53m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 57¢ $152 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 89¢ $351 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 38¢ $153 3h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL HULIGANI 78¢ $300 3h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 39¢ $153 4h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Natus Vincere 65¢ $151 4h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $152 5h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $181 5h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 55¢ $101 5h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 90¢ $172 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 90¢ $90 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 90¢ $2 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 90¢ $22 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 90¢ $0 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 90¢ $5 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 90¢ $10 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 28¢ $96 6h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY the bug 53¢ $203 20h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Bald 50¢ $6 21h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner SELL 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 100¢ $193 21h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 41¢ $22 21h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 55¢ $78 21h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $325 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 25¢ $51 23h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 46¢ $138 24h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 46¢ $14 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.08 · official $42.08 (match) · 688 history records