Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d1d…01ac
other · 946 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1,304 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,280 · open +$36
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17,860
Realized+$1,280
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses499 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions230
Markets (closed)720 / 946
History coverage41d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day65.8
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 230 History 720 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$179
7 days−$378
14 days+$711
30 days+$1,325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 97¢ 100¢ $2,403 $2,464 +$61 (+3%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 77¢ 74¢ $1,190 $1,156 −$34 (-3%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? No 89¢ 94¢ $822 $876 +$54 (+7%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 98¢ 99¢ $663 $663 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $637 $646 +$9 (+1%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 96¢ 100¢ $613 $638 +$25 (+4%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $557 $558 +$2 (+0%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 56¢ 99¢ $236 $415 +$179 (+76%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 11¢ 43¢ $99 $378 +$279 (+281%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $368 $373 +$5 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $342 $340 −$2 (-1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Under 91¢ 96¢ $301 $318 +$17 (+5%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $294 $295 +$1 (+0%)
Curaçao leading at halftime? No 96¢ 97¢ $288 $291 +$3 (+1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 76¢ 80¢ $271 $286 +$15 (+5%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 68¢ 69¢ $258 $264 +$6 (+2%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $219 $258 +$39 (+18%)
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $247 $248 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 95¢ 95¢ $231 $230 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 92¢ 92¢ $230 $228 −$2 (-1%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $219 $227 +$8 (+4%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 83¢ 86¢ $212 $220 +$7 (+3%)
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 81¢ $210 $217 +$7 (+3%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 97¢ $189 $204 +$15 (+8%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? No 89¢ 90¢ $181 $183 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Mark Hubbard win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Paul Waring win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $27 −$15 -56%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $6 +$2 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $185 +$20 +11%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $2 +$16 +919%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $44 −$32 -73%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 12 $38 +$12 +31%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +9%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America Lea Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Outlast (BO1) - North America L Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $98 +$3 +3%
César Huerta: 2+ goals Jun 11 $36 +$1 +4%
Alexis Vega: 1+ goals Jun 11 $13 +$3 +24%
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ goals Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Álvaro Fidalgo: 2+ goals Jun 11 $62 +$3 +4%
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +31%
Alexis Vega: 2+ goals Jun 11 $29 +$1 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Iqraam Rayners: 2+ goals Jun 11 $143 +$5 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $23 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $92 −$22 -24%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $24 +$27 +109%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America L Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$490
politics 23% +$574
sports 15% +$308
culture 12% +$2
world 2% −$51
economics 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $95 47m
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 87¢ $17 48m
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $95 48m
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 87¢ $17 51m
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $95 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Edin Džeko: 1+ assists BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will A.J. Ewart win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will John Parry win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 99¢ $99 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 89¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 88¢ $23 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 88¢ $52 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 98¢ $49 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 98¢ $49 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 88¢ $14 3h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? BUY No 98¢ $93 4h
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary BUY Yes 90¢ $19 4h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 98¢ $98 4h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 93¢ $93 4h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 86¢ $7 4h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 98¢ $99 5h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 98¢ $99 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -13.4% -21.7% 63% 18% -14.1%
≤30d 681 -0.1% -9.6% 71% 16% -6.6%
≤90d 720 -2.4% -11.7% 69% 16% -6.8%
all 720 -2.4% -11.7% 69% 16% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 16% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 10% -15.8%
15% -27.8% 7% -23.9%
20% -34.9% 5% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,860.33 · official $17,859.87 (match) · 3500 history records