Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4D 0x4d1e…68a3 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 319d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$28 (+1%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate60%24W / 16L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$10
other 19% +$29
politics 6% +$5
sports 5% $0
culture 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 17 +2.6% -7.1% 59% 6% -10.0%
≤90d 20 +35.3% +22.4% 60% 10% -9.9%
all 40 +27.3% +15.1% 60% 10% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.1% 10% -8.3%
10% +4.1% 10% -17.1%
15% -5.9% 8% -25.1%
20% -15.2% 8% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage319d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $78 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $108 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $141 +$3 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $85 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $102 −$2 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $209 +$5 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $102 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $109 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $107 −$5 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $187 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $77 +$3 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $91 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $5 +$3 +66%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $3 $0 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $116 −$16 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $25 $0 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $2 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 19 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 17 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $1 +$5 +335%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $92 +$21 +24%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $83 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $54 +$5 +10%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $33 +$2 +7%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or higher on August 7? Aug 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 06 $31 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 06 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $32 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $47 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $78 3h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $37 23h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $71 23h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $45 24h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $48 24h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $15 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $47 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $11 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $47 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $48 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $62 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $28 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $57 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $64 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $21 41h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 61¢ $20 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 61¢ $51 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 61¢ $29 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 62¢ $102 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $101 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records