Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:47:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4D 0x4d1f…6465 crypto 1621 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (158 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$685 (-2%) realized −$634 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%1562W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day158.1pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$277
14 days−$422
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$144
other 15% −$187
sports 7% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (158 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 559 -0.8% -10.3% 95% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 1613 -1.0% -10.5% 97% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 1613 -1.0% -10.5% 97% 0% -10.4%
all 1613 -1.0% -10.5% 97% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover158.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 0% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$344
Realized−$634
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1562 / 51
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1613 / 1621
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day158.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1613 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 29¢ 30¢ $127 $129 +$2 (+2%)
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 36¢ $123 $78 −$45 (-37%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 30¢ $54 $59 +$5 (+9%)
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 62¢ $53 $43 −$10 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 70¢ 26¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Will 2+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 55¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.38 · official $343.56 (match) · 3500 history records